Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Market Report - May 2013

Report overview:

This report includes MLS data for the past 36 months in Maricopa County only as provided by the FlexMLS system.  Please note that searches fluctuate daily when running these reports; these figures were obtained on 5/3/13.

A reminder that you need to meet with a real estate professional to see how statistics impact the area where you are considering selling or buying – blended statistics will not be as accurate as a more detailed report that your real estate professional can provide to help you with your decision making.

Total # of Closed Sales (36 Month Overview)

(click any graph for larger image)


Closed Sales Report Analysis:

Sellers:
April did not follow the same pattern as the prior two years, as we saw an increase in the number of closed sales – an increase of nearly 7.5% over the month of March. The statistics show that we had 7,731 residential homes sell in April in Maricopa County. For sellers, this means that there are fewer homes remaining on the market and that buyers continue to be extremely active and successful.

Buyers:
For buyers, this mean that the shortage of inventory remains as an important factor in buying a home or investment property. Buyers should continue to carefully work with their real estate professional to understand the market AND how they can be competitive with the market demand and other buyers who may be in a financial position that is more appealing to the seller.
Average Sales Price (36 Month Overview)

 
Average Sales Price Analysis
 
Sellers:
April saw the average sales price of a home in Maricopa County increase by 3%  from $230,876 to $237,810; this is the highest average in the 36-month reporting period. Sellers need to remain diligent about pricing homes according to the current market and to understand how this increase impacts individual homes.  Sellers are encouraged to spend time with their real estate professional to determine what is happening in their local market.

Buyers:
This stat is an indicator that buyers continue to pay more for homes than in the past 36 months. Educated and savvy buyers understand that a competitive market gives them fewer options for home choices, negotiating on price AND looking for concessions from a seller.  Although this may vary from area to area AND from price range to price range, buyers need to make sure they are fully informed regarding the individual market in which they have an interest.  This will give them the best chance of being competitive in the search for a home.

Monthly Expired and Cancelled Listings (36 Month Overview)

Expired & Cancelled Listing Analysis
 
Sellers:
April saw an increase of 8.3% over the prior month.  1,767 homes left the market without selling.  The lower this number, the better sellers are succeeding in selling their homes. This is the second month in a row that we have seen this number increase, so sellers should remain very focused on monitoring their local market to ensure that they are pricing homes and offering terms that are appealing to buyers. This number shows how many sellers “gave up” on offering their homes for sale to potential buyers.

Buyers:
For buyers, be aware that there are 1,767 fewer homes to consider.  At a time when inventory continues to shrink, this means an even tighter market for buyers. Buyers can expect more competition and less room for negotiation on price and/or concessions from sellers. A shrinking market means that savvy buyers will understand that they need to be prepared to act quickly on available homes and  now that the ability to get a “deal” on this inventory is more than likely not an option. Continue to watch this trend, as this, combined with price, days on market, and list to sales price ratio are an important indicator of what buyers need to do in order to be successful in closing on the home of their dreams.

Distressed Sales

 
Distressed Sales Analysis
 
A bank owned/foreclosure home is one that the seller no longer owns – it has been taken over by the lender(s) who had a note on the home. Short sales are homes where the seller is negotiating with the bank to “forgive” a portion
of the debt in order to avoid foreclosure.

The market continues to shift, as we saw 76% of sales in the month of April classified as “non-distressed” sales.    This is the highest this has been since this report was first generated several years ago. Bank-owned sales remained at 11% of closed sales, and short sales dropped from 15% to 13%.  Sellers and buyers need to monitor this trend to see how the market continues to respond to the current inventory.

Monday, May 13, 2013

"What Are Home Prices Doing?" - Thoughts from a Client Conversation

Spoiler Alert - skip to the bullet list below if you want the answer as I see it....

First, the background = I was speaking with a client yesterday May 12 (yes, I did see my Mom for Mother's Day, we went out Saturday since she had plans with my sister on Sunday); a buyer with over $500,000 in cash, which initially seems like a buyer outside the common challenges of finding and securing a reasonable property for their needs, right?

Bzzzzzzt! Thanks for playing, wrong, we have some lovely door prizes for you on the way out...
Survey says!  Bzzzzt.
Like all humans, this one has some fears - some legitimate, some likely out of proportion to the realistic risk of a certain scenario. As we all do, one of these concerns is if today's "deal" will result in catastrophic loss in a handful of years or less. Since people have short memories, and fear and loss stick stronger than positives and windfalls, I run into this often in regards to the crash of real estate from 5 or 6 yrs ago.

In essence, will what they buy today "crash" and leave them upside down? This is the root of the question, and it has some validity at all price points - after all, if the house you buy today drops to 50% of what you paid for it, that can be viewed as a loss or at minimum a liability instead of an asset as it was intended. No one wants to put themselves in that position if it can be avoided.

So, onward to answering the question!...
What Are Home Prices Doing?
 I Believe House Prices Will Continue to Rise in My (and Most) Markets - Here's Why!
First - it is POSSIBLE and somewhat likely there will be a tapering off, even slight decline as interest rates go up and the "print all the money we need" strategy gets dialed back (let's not go there this blog). A natural market adjustment, that won't be permanent, and will be healthy in the long run - just like putting a cast on a broken limb seems artificially restrictive at first (because it is), then can be removed once the limb is healed or even somewhat stronger than before.
Second, it is within the realm of statistics that we MAY experience yet another catastrophic crash in real estate. I do NOT believe that is going to happen - we've learned from the last one, and many, many factors I won't go into here are set to prevent that. Nuff said. Now for the good stuff:
  • House affordability is at an all-time HIGH! - Interest rates are LOW, in fact, even if they DOUBLE they are among the lowest in recorded history. House prices are just now getting above replacement cost (the cost to build the same house on location), and have cleared the margin that new homes are on the market again for the first time in ~3-4 years.
  • Major decline in distressed sales and foreclosures - 2012 saw the greater Phoenix market with about 40% of all sales in distressed (short, pre-foreclosure) position or lender-owned, first quarter 2013 has already dropped into the 30-35% range and that quantity is shrinking.
  • Low inventory of homes for sale - People just haven't been listing their houses for sale, for many reasons. Supply and demand is pushing those that are for sale into higher price points, which in turn makes some of those previously unable to sell now in position to do so.
  • Rise in price and demand of rentals - due to the previous crash, we have many renters that are far better qualified than historical tenants that can't buy yet, but will take better care of a property since they've been homeowners themselves. Again, a shortage creates a price increase yet yields higher returns, making this market the best time in the decade I've been in real estate to purchase a rental property and create wealth and cash flow.
For details on what this means for your individual situation, anywhere in the world, or if I've sparked you interest in investing or selling real estate, please contact me today. - JM
Make it a great day!

Wednesday, May 1, 2013

Seller Secrets: Your Next Step

Great introduction video about the house selling process! Whether this is your next smart choice or making the next investment decision, contact me today and we'll look at the options best matching your situation! - JM

http://youtu.be/tg51xCdSmug